This last January weekend's Rolex 24 at Daytona marks the blessed beginning of the 2011 race season with NASCAR going green in mid-February followed by the F1, IZOD IndyCar and ALMS debut weekends in March.
For fantasy racing game players the season can't start soon enough.
Of course the IZOD IndyCar Series opener is still almost two months away. Yes, we have our opinions about which teams and drivers will be contenda's, and we'll get to those in a few paragraphs, but our first thoughts have to be about the Rolex 24 at Daytona.
The Ganassi team, including the for-Daytona-only No. 02 entry will be as strong as ever as will the No. 99 Gainsco car and the newly Bow Tied No. 10 SunTrust entry. A rung below will be one or more of the various Riley Fords from Michael Shank and Starworks, then the Action Express Porsche Rileys, which could surprise, and the Level 5 BMW Rileys.
Some will be tempted to pick one of the Lola, Dallara or Coyote teams and this is the weekend to do so but when the checkers fall next Sunday, and at the end of every other Rolex race this season, chances are it will be a BMW Riley in victory lane.
Next up, the three NASCAR openers at Daytona featuring the cars and stars from the Cup, Nationwide and pick-em-up series.
Not surprisingly the usual suspects will remain so.
NASCAR's new rule about making drivers declare which one and only one series they've championship racing in won't really change our fantasy strategies although it will definitely impact those players who rarely check entry lists.
Kyle is still going to have a truck team, he's still going to drive in a number of races and he's still going to win most of the race he enters. Todd Bodine and Ron Hornaday will be top picks each weekend as will Austin Dillon, ThorSport's Johnny Sauter and whoever is driving for Kyle or in the second Kevin Harvick truck on any particular weekend. The No. 51 Vision Aviation/Billy Ballew Toyota, one of the Randy Moss trucks and perhaps Matt Crafton in the other Thorsport Chevy will battle for wins, as will the Turner Chevy when Mark Martin is behind the wheel.
But most players with stick with Kyle, Ron or Todd.
Full-time KHI driver Elliott Sadler should be the favorite pick for most Nationwide races next season along with Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Brad Keselowski and any one else in a Gibbs or KHI car. It would be nice to say that one of the Roush Fenway Ford drivers will contend next year but that probably will not be the case.
Turner Motorsports bought out the old Braun Toyota team and will run Chevys for Justin Allgaier (full time) and Ricky Carmichael, Kasey Kahne, Jason Leffler and Reed Sorenson part-time. Allgaier could win the title without ever earning a trophy, as could Steve Wallace and darkhorse Aric Almirlola who is driving full time for JR Motorsports but the most fantasy game starts will be registered for Brad, Carl and Kyle.
The Daytona 500 will see Cup cars with new frond ends, a slightly smaller restrictor plate and a brand spanking new, slicker than baby snot surface at DIS but the same old, same old picks: Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and maybe Carl Edwards.
There's no way to bet against JJ and his Chad Knaus-led No. 48 team while the jury is still out on the rest of the moved 'n shuffled Hendrick teams. Richard Childress Racing's Jeff Burton and Clint Bowyer may rise back up to championship form as could Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth for Roush Fenway and Kurt Busch for Penske. Kasey Kahne and Brian Vickers won't get a lot of picks; neither will either Richard Petty Motorsports driver (except for Marcos Ambrose when they run on the road courses) or either one the Red Bull racers.
The best Cup dark horses? Joey Logano and Juan Pablo Montoya. But neither will be any 2011 weekend's top cup pick unless they start dominating.
The Formula 1 season, fresh off a relatively dull hiatus with little drama (the Lotus name legal mishmach cannot compare to a something like the Mosley scandal, crashgate or those Kimi Raikkonen drinking stories) opens in March the same way it closed.
Can anyone beat Sebastien Vettel and Team Red Bull?
Probably not. Ferrari's Fernando Alonso is worried his car is getting too confusing to drive and Felipe Massa has yet to regain his pre-head injury form. Team McLaren will comprise the third of the top three tier followed by one Mercedes driver, the cars formerly called Renaults and then all the rest. That means the top picks will again be Vettel, Webber, Alonso and Hamilton.
The American Le Mans Series starts off with the 12 Hours of Sebring in mid-March with more questions, more unknowns and more interest than the series has shown for quite a while. Rules changes have dictated two prototype classes, one for LMP1s and LMP2s and the other for spec prototypes. The GT classes are also a duo; one for sports cars like Corvettes, Ferraris, Lamborghinis and BMWs and the other for spec Porsches.
Only the LMP1 and LMP2 cars have a realistic chance at winning overall, and the odds on favorite (and defending champion) Patron Highcroft Honda LMP2 will almost always be the top pick. A rash of new Lolas powered by everything Nissans, AERs, Aston Martins and Hondas will turn "who else should I pick" into a real brain basher until after a few races have been run but that's part of the game.
Then, finally, the last season of the spec Dallara/Honda IZOD IndyCar series begins in St. Petersburg with everyone picking some combination of Penske and Ganassi drivers. Will Power will get most of the picks on road and street courses until someone shows they're faster and it will be a toss-up among Ryan Briscoe, Helio, Scott Dixon and Dario Franchitti when it comes to starters for the oval races.
Interest will be high re: Graham Rahal and Charlie Kimball and the new Ganassi 'satellite' team. Everyone will be plenty excited to see how Tony Kanaan does with de Ferran Dragon/Luczo Dragon, how Justin Wilson does racing for the same team two years in a row and how Ryan Hunter-Reay does as the undisputed leader of the Andretti Autosport team.
But the only people who will pick Danica or any other IZOD IndyCar driver who doesn't race for the Captain or the Chipster are driver fans first, fantasy game players second.
-Bill
Read more of Bill Tybur's thoughts on fantasy racing at FMFL
photo credit: Bill Tybur
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